the tiebreakThis week's tie

Federer or Nadal?Rafael Nadal,
clearly.

Rafael Nadal 88.2, Roger Federer 78.1 out of 100: a margin of 10.1 points.

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The scorecard

Six criteria, each worth a fixed share, set before any scoring. Disagree? Try another scorecard and watch the bar tip toward whoever is ahead.

As publishedRafael Nadal, clearly.Rafael Nadal 88.2, Roger Federer 78.1 out of 100: a margin of 10.1 points.

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Roger Federer78.1Rafael Nadal88.2

Our scorecard. Try another, and watch the bar tip.

Where it was won

The lead, built criterion by criterion, starting with the one that did most to decide it.

Head-to-head+9.3
Major titles+0.9
Longevity+0.6
Influence0.0
Versatility−0.2
Peak dominance−0.4

LeadNadal +10.1the margin, 10.1 points

Each criterion in turn. Swipe through.

01 / 06

15%

Head-to-head

Adds 9.3 points to Rafael Nadal's lead.

02 / 06

20%

Major titles

Adds 0.9 points to Rafael Nadal's lead.

03 / 06

20%

Longevity

Adds 0.6 points to Rafael Nadal's lead.

04 / 06

5%

Influence

Moves Rafael Nadal's lead by less than 0.1 points.

05 / 06

10%

Versatility

Takes 0.2 points off Rafael Nadal's lead.

06 / 06

30%

Peak dominance

Takes 0.4 points off Rafael Nadal's lead.

Head-to-head

Adds 9.3 points to Rafael Nadal's lead.

Rafael Nadal
80.6 · ahead
Roger Federer
18.9 · behind

Edge: Rafael Nadal +61.8

For Rafael Nadal

“A total of 14 matches were at the majors, with Nadal leading 10–4.”

Federer–Nadal rivalry, Wikipedia · Lead

More for Rafael Nadal (12)

For Roger Federer

“He still trails Nadal 24–16 in their head-to-head matches, and at this stage of their careers he’s never going to level that score.”

How Roger Federer beat Rafael Nadal in the 2019 Wimbledon semis · Final paragraph

More for Roger Federer (13)
The receiptsHow the evidence was gathered, what the judge saw, the two checks, and the run's facts.

How the evidence was gathered

researchers: Claude, GPT, Gemini, Grok
4
web searches
85
quotes found word for word
216/274
facts after merging
157

What the judge saw

Contender A

  • Weeks ranked world No. 1: 310. Seasons finishing year-end No. 1: 5 (2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009).
  • “Contender A first ascended to the world No. 1 ranking on 2 February 2004 and would remain there for a record 237-consecutive weeks”
  • “He won three of the four majors and the Tour Finals in 2004, 2006, and 2007”
  • “Contender A's 2006 season is considered by most tennis experts to be one of the most dominant of the Open Era.”
  • “A one-point gap is effectively nothing: It means that peak Djokovic would have a 50.1% chance of beating peak Contender A.”
  • “In 2005, he won 81 of his 85 matches. 62 were straight-set victories.”
  • “Going into Major Y, he’d made 10 of the previous 11 Grand Slam finals, winning seven of them; the three losses had all come to the rival at the Major X.”
  • “In what is widely considered to be one of the greatest individual tennis seasons of all time and Contender A's best, Contender A was dominant in 2006, finishing the year with a 92–5 record.”
  • “From February 2nd, 2004 to August 17th, 2008, Contender A spent 237 weeks in a row at No. 1, far and away the longest consecutive streak at the top spot in ATP rankings history.”
  • “Contender A (their country) reached 10 successive Grand Slam finals, starting with the 2005 Major Y showpiece and finishing with the Major W final in 2008.”
  • “From 2005 to 2010 Contender A reached the finals in 18 out of 19 consecutive grand slams, winning 12 titles.”
  • “His 23 consecutive semifinals between 2004 Major Y and the 2010 Major Z and his 36 consecutive quarterfinals between 2004 Major Y and 2013 Major X are also the longest streaks for a man in tennis history.”
  • “Contender A has also registered a 56-match win streak on hard courts which is the all-time record.”
  • “Contender A is the only player to defend three majors (2007 Major Z, Major Y and Major W) that he won the year before.”
  • “winning 12 events of the 17 he entered and making the finals of all but one.”
  • “He won an unparalleled 11 Grand Slam tournaments (3 Major Z titles, 4 Major Y titles, and 4 Major W titles) of a possible 16 events from 2004 to 2007.”
  • “Contender A made the finals in 10-consecutive major tournaments, from the 2005 Major Y tournament to the 2007 Major W.”
  • “During this period of dominance, Contender A won 43 titles, including 10 Grand Slams, three ATP Finals crowns and 13 Masters 1000 titles.”
  • “winning 24 finals in a row between October 2003 and November 2005”

112 quotes, about 2,570 words. The packet the verdict scored.

Contender B

  • Weeks ranked world No. 1: 209. Seasons finishing year-end No. 1: 5 (2008, 2010, 2013, 2017, 2019).
  • “His 81 consecutive wins on clay constitute the longest single-surface win streak in the Open Era.”
  • “he is widely regarded as the greatest clay-court player in history.”
  • “Contender B became the first man to win any major eight times.”
  • “there’s little doubt that Contender B is the greatest clay court player of all time, and likely the most dominant player in tennis history on any single surface.”
  • “a player would need a clay Elo of about 2,595, almost 100 points higher than the comparable number for another event, and well above the level any player has ever achieved, even at their peak.”
  • “Contender B’s peak Elo–in the traditional calculation–is 2,370. That’s good for sixth of all time. The highest peak of the Open era is Borg’s, at 2,473.”
  • “Between 12 April 2005 and 19 May 2007, Contender B (their country) won 81 consecutive matches on clay.”
  • “Contender B won 13 titles and contested 209 sets of tennis (including 14 sets in two Davis Cup ties against Italy in 2005-06) during his 81-match unbeaten run on clay.”
  • “Contender B's 32-match winning streak in 2008 is the longest across three surfaces in tennis history.”
  • “Contender B finished the year as world No. 1 for the second time in his career. He won seven singles tournaments during the season, including three majors at the Major X, the Major Y Championships, and the Major W”
  • “Contender B did not lose a single semifinal on clay courts for 12 years (52–0)”
  • “unique feat of winning the three clay-court Masters 1000 tournaments (Monte Carlo, another event, Rome) and the Major X in the same season (2010)”
  • “He also won 50 consecutive sets on clay during another extraordinary run in 2017 and 2018.”
  • “Contender B won his fourth consecutive Major X title, by a score of 6–1, 6–3, 6–0. The scoreline puts the match among the most one-sided in Grand Slam finals history.”
  • “As in the player’s win/loss record on clay – an astounding 96.5% of wins.”
  • “Of those 112 victories, the player managed 90 in straight sets.”
  • “Of his 14 title wins, 4 were achieved without the loss of a single set: 2008, 2010, 2017 and 2020.”
  • “A win percentage of 97 per cent is the highest of any player at a grand slam, unmatched in tennis history.”

102 quotes, about 2,570 words. The packet the verdict scored.

Two checks that ran alongside

Names shown
−0.4
Change in the margin when the judge sees the names.
A and B swapped
−0.3
Change in the margin when the labels swap. It should sit near zero.

The run

judge
jev-1.13.0
rubric
athlete v2
calls
12
tokens
60,546
wall-clock
3.9 s
packets
Federer 272e16…8087 · Nadal db9b68…8a74

Pick next week's tie

One vote per device. You see the result after you vote. Whichever wins is scored next week, the same way. How we break a tie

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